A Democratic pollster urged her party Tuesday to not “underestimate” Donald Trump’s ability to draw support from voters who aren’t reflected in the polls, casting doubt on whether Vice President Kamala Harris will secure an easy victory in November.
Swing state polls between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump have tightened, with some national polls showing Harris slightly ahead. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, however, noted on “Pod Save America” that while she wasn’t initially worried about polls between Trump and President Joe Biden, she now believes there could be Trump supporters not reflected in the polls. (RELATED: Mark Halperin Says Dems Could Be In ‘Scary Position’ As Some Polls Show Harris Is ‘Not Ahead’ In Swing States)
“So originally against Biden I was not at all worried about it. There was no such thing as a shy Trump voter for God’s sakes … like we’re gunna make Trump more MAGA? So I was not worried about it at all. I do think now there might be. There may be some voters who — you know and we may get to the point where Trump says don’t answer the polls, which had a real impact on us,” Lake said.
“We have all changed our methodology a lot. We’re all looking at multiple turnout scenarios. We now all make sure that we don’t replace a Trump voter with the Biden voter etc, etc,” Lake continued. “But I’m always nervous about that and I’m always nervous about their surge in turnout. They’ve also done a lot more in terms of vote by mail. They’re now getting into vote by mail and Trump specifically wants vote by mail. That’s dangerous from two aspects — it’s dangerous because it may up their turnout.”
The incorrect polls, according to Lake, could “reduce a lot of ticket splitting,” explaining how mail in voting would effect women’s decision on who to vote for this November.
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“It’s also dangerous because it can reduce a lot of ticket splitting. Women when they can vote in the voting booth get to make up their own mind, with their own priorities. Husbands and wives sit down together to vote by mail and so she’s ready enthusiastically marking Hillary or Harris and her husband says, ‘What are you doing? We’re not Harris voters we’re voting for Trump’ and then she goes, ‘Oh enough I’m not fighting about this.’ So that worries me too,” Lake said.
“So, yes, I am concerned and I think hopefully you know the current polls — four points ahead nine points ahead among Independents …” Lake continued. “But yes I always worry that we should not underestimate the Trump’s [sic], as disgusted as we get they can get reinforced.”
Despite tight polls, Trump leads among key Democratic blocs like Latinos, who trust him on the economy and immigration over Harris, driven by issues like the border crisis and inflation, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Average data from RealClearPolitics shows key battleground states tightening, with Trump leading by 0.2% to 1% in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris leads by 0.5% to 1.4% in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. A national poll between the two candidates solely shows Harris leading by slightly under two points, as the vice president sits with 48.1% of the vote and 46.2% going towards Trump.
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