The unspoken reality underlying President Obama’s update for the nation on the war in Afghanistan Thursday was that U.S. troops will likely be fighting for many years to come in a conflict that has already gone on for almost a decade.
There wouldn’t be nearly as many troops in the years ahead as the 100,000 that are there now. And most U.S. soldiers in harms way five years – or even 10 years – from now in Afghanistan would likely be Special Operations Forces, hardened warriors with an appetite for fighting.
But the fighting will most probably go on for many more years, and American blood will continue to be spilled.
Obama, tellingly, made almost no mention of troop levels in his brief comments at the White House, mentioning only that the U.S. will begin a “transition to full Afghan lead for security” in 2011. He said the transition would “conclude” in 2014, but then added that there will be a troop contingent under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization over the “long-term.”
The Afghan war effort is even now under NATO command, but there are only around 40,000 international troops compared to the 100,000 U.S. soldiers, who have done most of the fighting.
Obama attempted to convey publicly that the U.S. wants to remain committed to Afghanistan and Pakistan without giving any obvious indications that he has intentions of a long-term U.S. troop presence, which would greatly anger his liberal base.
“We will forge a new strategic partnership with Afghanistan next year, so that we make it clear that the United States is committed to the long-term security and development of the Afghan people,” said Obama, who added that he would also “work to deepen trust and cooperation” with Pakistan.
One influential think tank in Washington has argued that unless the people of Afghanistan believe the U.S. is not going to cut and run from their country, they have little incentive to side with the U.S.-backed Afghan central government. And that is crucial to building up Afghan security forces to take over the mission from the U.S. military.
A report by that think tank, the Center for a New American Security, said this month that the U.S. public should anticipate a troop commitment of roughly 30,000 troops – mostly Special Operations – who will conduct a “prolonged low level of unconventional war” for the foreseeable future.
Obama said any long-term troop presence would be there to provide “training and advising” for Afghan forces.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was far more circumspect about the certainties and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. military’s involvement over the mid- to long-term.
“In terms of when the troops come out, the president has made clear it’ll be conditions-based. In terms of what that line looks like beyond July 2011, I think the answer is, we don’t know at this point,” Gates said, referring to the withdrawal date Obama set in December 2009. “But the hope is that as we progress, that those draw downs will be able to accelerate.”
He thanked U.S. troops in combat for their many sacrifices and their valor and added that he regretted “that we will be asking more of them in the months and years to come.”
Obama said the war “continues to be a very difficult endeavor” but said the U.S. is “on track to achieve our goals.” He defined those goals the same way his administration has for the past year: “disrupting, dismantling and defeating al-Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan and preventing its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who took questions from reporters at the White House with Gates, acknowledged that the war is unpopular with the American people, but argued strongly that U.S. involvement in the region was essential to America’s national security.
“I’m well aware of the popular concern, and I understand it. But I don’t think leaders, and certainly this president will not make decisions, that are matters of life and death and the future security of our nation, based on polling,” she said.
“I’m very respectful of the feelings of the American people. But the question I would ask is: ‘How do you feel about a continuing American commitment that is aimed at protecting you and your family now and into the future?’”