The latest Republican debate is already in the rear-view mirror and much of the aftermath is still focused on whether CNBC was truly awful or fair and balanced.
For GOP hopefuls, however, the debate marks a turning point in the campaign. [crscore]Marco Rubio[/crscore] parried Jeb Bush’s attacks and is now clearly the frontrunner among establishment candidates. But like upstarts Donald Trump and Ben Carson, his campaign coffers aren’t especially full, which means Rubio’s ability to capitalize on his new standing isn’t as strong as it might be. And while Iowa is still just over three months away, the next 30 days could tell us much about how the battle for the nomination plays out.
Here’s why: though the mainstream media has regularly talked of a Rubio surge, in the past month there hasn’t been much evidence of one. He’s sitting at 9 percent in the RealClearPolitics poll averages, which is actually lower than the 9.6 percent he was at a month ago. (Polls reflecting Wednesday’s debate aren’t included in those aggregates yet.) While it’s certainly true that Bush has been sliding (9.2 percent to 7 percent), it’s also true he’s sliding slowly. Most telling: a month ago Carson and Trump were preferred by about 40 percent of Republican votes; today they’re the choice of about 60 percent.
With the holidays approaching, those two might actually benefit from folks paying attention to things other than politics. And that might lead to results in Iowa and New Hampshire that mirror current polls. If that terrifies the party itself – as opposed to voters – the time to do something about it is now.
Which brings us back to Rubio. He’s got $11 million as of the last financing report at the end of September which is third-best among the candidates but behind Carson and [crscore]Ted Cruz[/crscore]. It’s not much by recent standards, though, and some of it is locked up until the general election because campaign-finance rules allow donors to contribute to both rounds of the process early on.
With Rubio having spent only $3.4 million of his direct donations so far, the remainder might seem like a healthy sum. It isn’t. Carson for his part understands this, though his fundraising machine isn’t very efficient, despite running hot. The retired neurosurgeon raised more in the last quarter ($20.7 million) than Rubio has overall, but Carson spent $11.2 million to get there.
That kind of fundraising might work for a non-profit, but not a presidential campaign. Still, Carson’s resources outstrip Rubio’s (the senator does have a SuperPAC supporting him with millions more, but campaign staffs and field offices have to come from direct donation money, and Rubio really doesn’t have lots of it.)
Rubio’s additional dollars haven’t translated to much movement in the polls nor to many high-profile endorsements. He did score two House members recently, but still trails even Sen. [crscore]Rand Paul[/crscore] in the endorsement race.
If Bush continues to slowly flame out over the coming month, the pressure will be on the party to start making “Marco Rubio, star debater” into “Marco Rubio, inevitable nominee.” What would the party need to do to catalyze that shift? It starts with high-profile names endorsing him, especially in the Northeast and Midwest so voters in at least Iowa and New Hampshire hear about them. It continues with direct donations to the Rubio campaign so he can crow about them, as Carson has done and even Bernie Sanders can on the Democratic side.
If this has come to pass, it should be apparent by the Monday after Thanksgiving with Rubio leaving Cruz and Bush in his dust. By then, he’d also be showing signs of challenging Trump and Carson in the polls. Rubio doesn’t have to catch either of them in the next four weeks, but he should be making them think about the old Satchel Paige line, “Don’t look back, someone could be gaining on you.”
And if that doesn’t happen? Then the GOP establishment has a dilemma. Rubio’s performances behind a podium aren’t translating to primary voter support and Trump or Carson just might run away with things.
It won’t be easy for them either, though. Carson’s campaign might have more dry powder than Rubio’s, but his totals are also weak. Trump’s campaign is nearly bankrupt and so far The Donald hasn’t put his money where his mouth is.
That sets the stage for a very interesting Christmas with the Republicans. They could either conclude that Rubio is still their guy and bring last-minute resources to try to promote him with voters. (Think: endorsements, mailing lists, the best strategists and operatives parachuting into Manchester and Des Moines to work for Rubio.)
Or they could look elsewhere. At that point, Govs. John Kasich and Chris Christie get one last look. Neither has resonated with voters so far, though in fairness they aren’t a ton less popular than candidates Rubio and Bush who both have led the prediction markets. Those metrics have historically done a decent job foretelling the eventual nominee.
Kasich and Christie are effective blue-state governors who could plausibly argue they have a shot at carrying states President Obama won twice. Both have track records of “getting things done” and taking pragmatic – dare we say moderate – positions at times. They’d present a stark contrast to Cruz, who has no interest in moderation and isn’t very well-liked inside the party, let alone out of it.
For someone not named Rubio to become the nominee at that point, though, it will take the kind of back-room dealings that harken to the old days when “the party” mattered at least as much as the candidates.
Everything we’ve seen so far suggests Republican voters are fed up with that dynamic and so they just might stick with the two guys who are as far removed from the party as possible. Rubio seems like the last, best defense against that happening. His moment is now. Soon we’ll know if he makes the most of it.
Mark Rogowsky is a freelance journalist who contributes regularly at Forbes. Follow him on Twitter (@maxrogo).