The anxious and sometimes vicious chatter about the Trump transition reminds me of the doomsday guy who always parked his car in front of a popular Wilmington coffee shop. His car was plastered with messages on how the world was coming to an end on a certain day. As we know, he was wrong. And so are those who see nasty times coming replete with theories about … everything. Currently Trump faces a steep learning curve – one studded with landmines – but I think he will do fine in the end.
Fifty-three years ago next week, a stunned Lyndon Johnson became President upon the assassination of John F. Kennedy. While he had been a leader in the Senate, being JFK’s Vice-President was a different matter. Bobby Kennedy and his family’s operatives controlled the West Wing. LBJ probably felt like one of Franklin Roosevelt’s Vice Presidents, who described the job as a ‘bucket of warm piss.’
Once JFK’s funeral was over and Jackie Kennedy and her children had left Washington, LBJ had to cope with running the government in a way that would not seem to disrespect the Kennedy family (particularly Bobby Kennedy). LBJ was not a subtle man, but he managed to pull it off.
Regarding theories about Trump’s transition, I don’t believe Reince Priebus (the incoming chief-of-staff) is House Speaker Paul Ryan’s puppet. While Priebus and Ryan are both from Wisconsin and have known each other for a long time, Priebus has been an unwavering supporter of candidate Trump, unlike Ryan. For example, on October 10, Ryan said he would no longer defend Trump, preferring to concentrate on House races instead.
With Trump now the president-elect, Ryan has realized he needs a modus vivendi to work with a President Trump.
As for Priebus, I suspect he’s already going through a personal transformation that will culminate in that indescribable moment when he first takes his desk in the West Wing and looks out over the White House lawn.
Ryan might have direct phone access to Priebus, but that’s nothing compared to continuous face-time with the President of the United States.
As chairman of the Republican National Committee, Priebus had one goal – to get Republicans elected. As chief of staff, his goals will be uncountable, starting with who does or does not get to see the President. The next one is getting the boss re-elected in 2020. The one after that is having keeping the House and Senate in the 2018 mid-term elections. Plus he’ll have to manage the requests of cabinet secretaries as well as other Congressional leaders whose last name isn’t Ryan. Meanwhile, we have troops overseas, U.S. Naval ships and submarines around the world, and … you get the idea.
In my mind, Ryan could call Priebus and discuss his favorite topic – vouchers for Medicare that shrink in value, forcing seniors to shoulder more of the cost of their care (which naturally increases as seniors age).
Priebus, in his new role, might respond: ‘Sorry Paul, we’ve done some polling on that, and the numbers look very bad. We’d have to take a big hit with a core voting bloc, white seniors, who really hate this idea. So it’s a no-go. Come over to the White House Mess sometime and we’ll have lunch.’
Ryan seems to forget or doesn’t accept what happened in 2005, when President George W. Bush announced he was going to spend his ‘political capital’ on reforming Social Security – a reform that involved diverting a part of a worker’s Social Security taxes into mutual funds. By Memorial Day 2005, Bush’s political capital and reform agenda were dust. In the 2006 mid-term election, the House flipped to the Democrats.
Hopefully, Priebus is too smart to let history repeat itself on his watch.
As for speculations as to who might be nominated to a certain post, it’s useful to recall how top-level posts require Senate confirmation.
I expect Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to be candid with both Priebus and the President-Elect as to who will be able to get through the confirmation process and who will not. McConnell prides himself on a smooth-running Senate and his advice must be taken seriously. Further, McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao (Secretary of Labor in George W’s administration) publicly endorsed Trump last September. Was that a proxy for a McConnell endorsement?
Despite the power of American common sense, will the nastiness of the Left suddenly cease? Of course not. Crazy ideas drive eyeballs to wacko websites, Trump-hating cable news shows and The View. They even help sell dead-tree newspapers. Best to ignore them and move on. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, Trump won’t achieve his agenda if he stops to kick every barking dog.
Lastly, here’s some advice for the transition team. Have Melania announce she’s in the process of finding a suitable doggie to be the White House pet. Then, as the weeks go by, have her drop hints about various breeds. That should keep the media and bloggers nattering like mad.
