With 2023 ending in less than a month, the 2024 Republican presidential primary is still looking like a coronation of Donald Trump rather than a competitive campaign to see who will win the Republican nomination. If Republicans will make this a race before January voting starts, then one more thing needs to happen: Chris Christie must drop out.
It seems Christie entered this race believing he would take down former President Trump on the debate stage by telling the truth about his record and then consolidating the non-Trump vote in the Republican electorate; unfortunately for Christie, that hasn’t come to pass. Trump has not attended any debates thus far, which makes Christie’s attacks fall flat among the audience, and the non-Trump electorate amongst Republicans is more diminutive than initially thought.
According to Washington Post polling for the first three primary debates, Republican voters rated Christie’s performance the worst of all in two of them. The third debate revealed that 24 percent rated Christie as the worst on stage, with only eight percent ranking him as best. Only Vivek Ramaswamy had a worse rating, with 29 percent of respondents ranking him in last place.
It’s not that Christie made any slip-ups, exactly. He’s just a repellant to conservative voters.
Christie was a two-term governor in the blue state of New Jersey, but he’s been out of office since 2019. As governor, he made national headlines for reforming state employee pensions and for getting into heated debates with public sector unions at town hall meetings. Unfortunately for him, much of that is forgotten. He is still a masterful orator with a captivating persona, but what voters remember is the hug to Obama and his liberal record as governor. This makes him the wrong man to take on Trump.
Historically speaking, Christie is among the most unpopular candidates ever to try to win his party’s presidential nomination. According to polling aggregate site FiveThirtyEight, some 56 percent of Republicans disapprove of Christie. Only 22 percent view him favorably, compared to 77 percent for Trump, 62 percent for DeSantis and 47.5 percent for Haley.
What’s even more incredible is that polling from YouGov shows Democrats have a higher view of Christie than Republicans do.
Despite his campaign’s sluggish numbers, Christie remains committed to securing the non-MAGA vote. With no visits to Iowa and only a handful in South Carolina, Christie is staking his entire campaign on New Hampshire.
If Christie is on the ballot in the Granite State, he will likely draw enough anti-Trump votes to ensure the former president’s victory. But for Republicans still praying for an alternative to Trump, it would be equally problematic if Christie were to win New Hampshire.
Christie’s blunt demeanor is perfect for the “Live Free or Die” state. A recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll had him at 14 percent, a number he’d struggle to match in any other primary contest.
Since Christie has conceded Iowa, he will receive no momentum or delegates there. After New Hampshire comes South Carolina, which shows him no higher than three percent in recent polling. Maine’s secretary of state confirmed that Christie will not appear on the ballot in the state’s Super Tuesday primary. Instead of being a spoiler for Trump, Christie would be a spoiler for the alternative to Trump.
As it stands now, Nikki Haley has gained a foothold on the non-Trump vote with her decisive debate performances, traditional conservative policies, and key endorsements from conservative groups like Americans for Prosperity that Christie needs to compete. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis is cutting into the MAGA vote and, for now, locking in a second-place standing in Iowa with the help of Bob Vander Plaats and Gov. Kim Reynolds.
If Christie drops out, most of his support would go to Haley, not DeSantis. Haley and Christie are closer on the political spectrum than Christie and DeSantis. Political Analyst Aaron Blake of the Washington Post describes Haley/Christie voters as moderates, independents, and Trump-skeptic voters. He also points to a voting simulation from FairVote, which predicts that 78 percent of Christie supporters would switch to Haley if he were to drop out.
If Trump wins Iowa, there’s a good chance no one will stop him, but a close second-place finish by Haley or a comeback win from DeSantis would turn everyone’s attention to New Hampshire. With Haley’s numbers at around 20 percent and Trump’s at 42 percent, the vote left over from Christie could at least put Haley within the margin of error to win New Hampshire and then take on her home state of South Carolina, where she is in second place. At that point, we’d have a real primary fight on our hands.
Whatever Chris Christie’s goal in running for president, whether for fame or for virtue, it’s just not working. The one-time popular governor of New Jersey missed his chance at the presidency a couple cycles ago and has never recovered. His campaign slogan reads “Because the Truth Matters,” but the truth of the matter is that he is no longer a viable Republican presidential candidate.
Alex Adkins is a graduate of Benedictine University in political science. He has written for the Washington Examiner, American Thinker, American Spectator, and The Federalist. You can follow him on Twitter @Zylinger.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller.