The Daily Caller

The Daily Caller

Is Nate Silver’s value at risk?

Sean M. Davis
COO, Media Trackers

Nassim Taleb famously wrote two books --- Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan --- about how incredibly complex prediction models can spectacularly fail if just a few underlying assumptions are incorrect. One of Taleb’s targets was a financial model referred to as “Value at Risk,” or VaR. This model attempted to quantify, using historical measures of volatility as a proxy for risk, the maximum amount of money a firm or portfolio could lose over a certain period of time. Many commentators and analysts now believe that a foolish over-reliance on risk-management models like VaR was partly responsible for the 2008 financial crisis.

Obama Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan attacked guns, Hillary Clinton according to newly released e-mails

1:27 AM 06/21/2010

Newly released e-mails from the Clinton Library paint Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan as a brash and often creative political operative. As a lawyer and political adviser in the Clinton White House, Kagan often opined on touchy topics, including guns, race and Hillary Clinton's official policy role as first lady.

To protect and serve? Stories from readers

11:10 AM 02/05/2010

A Note from Tucker: