Sean M. Davis | All Articles

Sean M. Davis
Sean M. Davis
COO, Media Trackers
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      Sean M. Davis

      Sean M. Davis is the COO of Media Trackers. He received an MBA in finance from The Wharton School in 2010 and previously served as CFO of The Daily Caller.

Is Nate Silver’s value at risk?

Nassim Taleb famously wrote two books --- Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan --- about how incredibly complex prediction models can spectacularly fail if just a few underlying assumptions are incorrect. One of Taleb’s targets was a financial model referred to as “Value at Risk,” or VaR. This model attempted to quantify, using historical measures of volatility as a proxy for risk, the maximum amount of money a firm or portfolio could lose over a certain period of time. Many commentators and analysts now believe that a foolish over-reliance on risk-management models like VaR was partly responsible for the 2008 financial crisis.