• Several key elections are taking place on Tuesday, with two contentious governor elections, one legislative election that will determine the balance of power in a major state and one abortion ballot measure in another.
• Kentucky Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron is challenging incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, and Mississippi’s incumbent GOP Gov. Tate Reeves is facing Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.
• All of Virginia’s 140-seat General Assembly is up for grabs, where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is hoping to hold the state House and flip the state Senate, and an abortion ballot measure in Ohio will determine whether the procedure gets enshrined in the state constitution.

Several states are holding contentious elections on Tuesday that will determine whether the GOP can flip the Kentucky governor’s mansion and hold Mississippi’s, as well as the balance of power in Virginia’s state Legislature and the future of abortion in Ohio.

Kentucky’s Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron is running against incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, and Mississippi’s incumbent GOP Gov. Tate Reeves is facing a challenge from Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley. All 140 state legislative seats are up for grabs in Virginia, which will determine whether Republicans can hold the House and flip the Senate, and an abortion ballot measure in Ohio could make the procedure a constitutional right.

Kentucky:

Cameron and Beshear overwhelmingly secured their respective party nominations in mid-May, with the attorney general beating out the Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles, former Trump administration U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft and numerous other Republican challengers.

The governor secured his first term in 2019 when he ousted incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin by a narrow 5,000-vote margin. Beshear previously served as Kentucky’s attorney general prior to Cameron’s term, and is the son of former Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear.

Cameron succeeded Beshear in 2019, beating his Democratic opponent Gregory Stumbo by roughly 16 points, and is endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Beshear has significantly out-raised Cameron for the general election, bringing in a total of $17 million since it became a two-man race compared to the attorney general‘s $3.9 million, according to the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance.

The majority of polling on the general election head-to-head matchup has indicated Beshear is leading Cameron by anywhere from 2 points to 16 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s survey compilation.

However, an Emerson College poll released Nov. 3 found the two tied at 47%, with 4% remaining undecided and 2% picking someone else. The survey also suggested that the undecided voters were leaning more toward Cameron than Beshear at 62% to 39%, respectively.

Kentucky held early voting from Nov. 2 to Nov. 4, and polls close at 6 p.m. local time on Tuesday. (RELATED: New Poll Shows Key Governor’s Race In Dead Heat Just Days Before Election)

November 7 is Election Day. This race is about our kids and grandkids.

Makenze and I want Theodore and all children to look boldly and confidently into the future.

Join us, and, together, we will make this Commonwealth a shining city on a hill. pic.twitter.com/Ej1WhuQKbk

— Daniel Cameron (@DanielCameronAG) November 6, 2023

Mississippi:

Reeves and Presley became their parties’ nominees in early August, where the governor handily beat two Republican challengers and the commissioner won outright.

The governor won his first term in 2019 by roughly 5 points against former Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood after serving as lieutenant governor for two terms. Reeves, who also served as the state treasurer, was endorsed by Trump just days ahead of the election on Nov. 1.

Presley, a cousin of Elvis Presley, has been representing the state’s Northern District as its public service commissioner since 2008, and previously served as the mayor of Nettleton, Mississippi, from 2001 to 2007.

The Democrat has far outpaced Reeves in terms of fundraising, with Presley raising a total of $12.1 million compared to Reeves’ $6.5 million, according to WLBT3.

Polling for the race has largely found Reeves winning against Presley by margins of 1 point to 17 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s survey compilation.

A recent poll conducted by liberal firm Public Policy Polling and released on Oct. 23 indicated Reeves had a narrow 1-point lead, while a survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy published in early October showed the governor up by 8 points.

Mississippi doesn’t permit early voting, only allowing limited mail-in ballots, and will close its polls at 7 p.m. local time Tuesday.

Virginia:

Virginia’s 140-seat General Assembly is on the ballot on Tuesday, and Republicans are hoping to hold their slim majority in the state House and flip the state Senate, which is narrowly controlled by Democrats. This will be the first election after the state’s redistricting in 2021, which has disrupted numerous races by causing mass vacancies and incumbents having to compete in new territory.

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is hoping for a GOP “trifecta,” and has been helping candidates campaign across the state through his political action committee (PAC). The governor has been pushing early voting in the state, a tactic typically used by Democrats, to shore up support for the candidates before election day.

Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC announced in early October it brought in $7.45 million during the third fundraising quarter, bringing its total to $15.5 million since March.

The key races have also attracted national attention from Democrats, with the Democratic National Committee dropping $1.5 million into the election, largely at President Joe Biden’s directive, and a nonprofit group affiliated with Illinois Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker giving $250,000.

A Founders Insight poll released Oct. 9 indicated the race is in a dead heat, with 45% of likely voters tapping Democrats, 44% choosing Republicans and 11% remaining undecided for a generic General Assembly ballot.

Early voting for the legislative elections ran from Sept. 22 through Nov. 4, and the polls will close at 7 p.m. Tuesday local time.

Ohio:

Ohio voters will decide on an abortion ballot initiative, “Issue 1,” to enshrine a right to the procedure into the state’s constitution. Pro-abortion groups drafted the measure in February, and a Republican-proposed initiative to increase the threshold to change the state constitution failed in early August.

The ballot measure has caused a massive amount of pro-life and pro-abortion campaigning in the state, with Ohio’s Republican Gov. Mike DeWine encouraging constituents to vote against the initiative.

Ohio advocates for and against “Issue 1” have raked in millions in out-of-state donations ahead of the election, with Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights raising a total of $39.4 million since February and Protect Women Ohio garnering roughly $27 million since March, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.

A mid-October survey conducted by Ohio Northern University found that a majority of registered voters planned on voting for “Issue 1.”

The state held early voting from Oct. 11 to Nov. 5, and polls will close at 7:30 p.m. local time.

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