Democratic strategist James Carville on Monday warned Democrats not to be overconfident about Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of victory, as former President Donald Trump has historically outperformed his polling average.
Trump currently has a 0.1% lead over Harris in the seven main battleground states, while the vice president has a 1.5% lead over the former president nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics averages. Carville, on “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” said there are numerous potential stumbling blocks for Harris, particularly noting Trump’s tendency to get a larger share of votes than polls project him to receive. (RELATED: ‘Is That A Trick Question?’: Kamala Harris Rally-Goers Struggle To Explain Her Policies)
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“Democrats are feeling better. It’s undeniable … I see the polls and I remind people of a couple of things, Jake. First of all, most quants, and they’re better at this than I am, say that the vice president would have to win almost by three points in the popular vote to win the Electoral College,” Carville told host Jake Tapper. “And I also would point out that when President Trump runs, he overperforms his polling averages. He did it in 2016. The national polls were actually pretty spot-on, but they didn’t pull weight in the states.”
“And then they pulled weight in the states in 2020, and you would have thought he was going to win these states by eight points. He didn’t. President Biden did no such thing … People need to have some reality infused in their optimism,” he continued. “I’m glad that people are feeling better. I’m glad that people are excited. But anybody that looks at this with any sense of history, any sense of objectivity, sees that there’s plenty possible pitfalls that we’re faced with. And we need to acknowledge that and stop being giddy all the time.”
CNN’s Van Jones on Monday expressed fear regarding the presidential race virtually being a tie between Trump and Harris, despite the vice president benefiting from weeks of “positive press.” He also noted she has a chance to surge in the polls after the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
“We don’t wanna be tied. I don’t like being tied with Donald Trump because we’ve had now 20-plus days of positive press. He’s been falling down the stairs, slipping on banana peels and poking himself in the eyeball. We should not be tied. We want to pull ahead,” Jones said. “That’s our opportunity this week.”
Black male Georgia voters told Sky News in a Monday video they support Trump because of his brash personality, business acumen and economic track record as president.
“Some people don’t like it, but I think he a smart businessman,” one voter said. “Some want to call him an a-hole but I think he an excellent a-hole.”
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