The U.S. air campaign against the Islamic State has steadily chipped away at the group’s strength, but these same airstrikes have inadvertently bolstered the effectiveness of al-Qaida in the region.
U.S. airstrikes have purposefully avoided Jabhat al Nusra, the al-Qaida affiliate organization in Syria, The Daily Beast reports. Army Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland said recently at a press conference that it’s possible that successful airstrikes against ISIS have increased the effectiveness and power of al-Qaida. The two groups notoriously do not play well together.
Additionally, it’s not clear that the destruction of al-Qaida would immediately benefit U.S. interests. Even though its activities are only slightly less extreme than ISIS, the group currently maintains a certain level of order in Syria and has even fought alongside rebel groups against President Bashar al-Assad, a fight which the U.S. has generally supported for some time.
The Institute for the Study of War determined that al Nusra “rivals ISIS as a sophisticated, intelligent, strategic actor in the region and continues to enjoy a dangerous freedom to operate in Syria. The two groups share common goals, including a revived Islamic Caliphate. JN, however, is pursuing its aims through a distinct, more patient methodology that is highly threatening despite its low signature.”
Al Nusra’s strategy, in direct contrast with ISIS, is to blend in with indigenous rebel groups and to keep a quiet profile. This has allowed the organization to avoid international ire, while simultaneously making incredible gains on the ground. Its elite forces work with local groups to curry favor with the population, providing them an alternative to both Assad and ISIS. One advantage of cozying up to rebel groups is that al Nusra may have access to U.S. weapons provided to so-called moderate rebels.
For now, the U.S. is not too concerned. MacFarland said that al Nusra is likely to focus on defeating ISIS.
“If [ISIS] and al Nusra Front want to fight each other, I wish them both success, but, you know, we’re here to defeat [ISIS], and that’s what we’re going after every day,” MacFarland said, according to The Daily Beast.
But that scenario has not come to fruition. Al Nusra has spent the majority of its time building local legitimacy, regaining territory lost in 2012 and avoiding Russian airstrikes. That the U.S. is not also targeting al Nusra may be because the militant group has focused on fighting Assad via rebel groups, which is exactly what the U.S. wants.
But avoiding U.S. targeting is also want al Nusra wants, as well.
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