For almost a decade now, Republicans have taken pollsters’ incompetence for granted. They gave Hillary Clinton an almost certain chance of victory in 2016, so they can never be trusted to accurately gauge Donald Trump — or so the theory goes. However, the polls have been fairly accurate in this election cycle — at least in the beginning.
Trump is a uniquely difficult figure to poll. For a long time, the hostile environment Democrats, the corporate media, and leading cultural figures built around him made expressing pro-Trump sentiments a risky business. Supporting Trump could put friendships in jeopardy, rupture families, or even have dire professional consequences. People knew they weren’t supposed to like him, and if they did, it represented some sort of character flaw. Even to strangers polling them over the phone, people cautiously guard their virtue. It doesn’t help that polls are sometimes strategically weighted toward Democrats, to shape opinion rather than reflect it.
Yet as Trump chugs along with the momentum of a steamroller, this toxic atmosphere has begun to collapse. It’s no longer a social death sentence to say you support Trump — even high-profile celebrities are doing it. Some, from irreverent rapper Azealia Banks to Kelsey Grammer to sports legend Caitlyn Jenner have openly endorsed him, while other notable figures like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan have certainly warmed up to some of his ideas. Partly, it’s herd mentality: middle-of-the-road voters now feel more comfortable expressing their support as social interdictions soften. However, it’s also a conscious shift. People have woken up to the media narratives, realizing that President Joe Biden is the true radical on issues from immigration to the economy, while Trump represents a moderate return to normal.
This helps explain why the polling on Trump has been pretty much spot on so far this election season.
On the day of the caucus in Iowa, the 538 polling average projected Trump would take 52.7% of the vote, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would hold 18.7%. Trump wound up coming in just barely under, at 51%, while Haley over-performed by less than half a point at 19.1%. The key takeaways of the projection held: Trump enjoyed support from a narrow majority, while Haley’s base was a solid, but ultimately insignificant, quarter of the Republican electorate. (RELATED: ‘It’s Ready To Go Republican’: Trump Says He Wants To Go All In On One State GOP Hasn’t Won In Decades)
The polls were right again in New Hampshire. On the day of the primary, Trump stood at 53.9% percent in the 538 average, while Haley stood at 36.3%. Trump slightly overperformed by less than half a point, walking away with 54.3% of the vote. Haley, meanwhile, did substantially better than the polls suggested at 43%, but that is likely because Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out right before the election. Some of his voters moved over to Haley’s camp too quickly for the polls to capture. On Trump, the pollsters were spot on.
In South Carolina, Trump again came in just slightly over a point of the polls — 59.8% projected compared to 61.6%. Haley overperformed by about 5 points, coming in at 39% after a 34% projection. Again, this is likely due to Democrats turning out for Haley to spite Trump, although they would certainly not vote for her in a general election.
Absolute insanity. Nikkki Haley is a Democrat plant. Listen to this voter explicitly state he is voting for Nikki as a protest vote against Trump and will be voting Biden in the Generals. This is why the Democrats are funding her campaign. pic.twitter.com/kYTmUh1FiZ
— Kephfas (@Kephfas) January 24, 2024
It’s only in Michigan that Trump’s polling began to deviate. Haley did about 5 points better than expected, while Trump did about 10 points worse, with uncommitteds making up most of the balance.
From there, things got dicier on Super Tuesday. Polls suggested Trump was likely to win by almost 50 points in Virginia, but he only walked away with about a 28-point victory. Despite a small sample, polls did not predict Haley’s victory in Vermont; in fact, they suggested a roughly 30-point victory for Trump. Haley surged in Massachusetts (an open primary), reducing Trump’s margin of victory to roughly 15 points narrower than projected.
Partly, this is due to averages being skewed from earlier polling before Haley surged in the match-up against Trump. But it shows that polls can’t totally be counted on to accurately reflect the anti-Trump or Trump-ambivalent primary voters. So we get a pretty good idea of the proportions of Trump’s core base, and how they are going to turn out. Moderates and Independents, the types who are lukewarm on Trump and gravitate towards someone a little more centrist like Haley, may turn out to be a wild card that cut into Trump’s support. With Haley’s reported withdrawal from the race following Super Tuesday, the question now becomes: will they gravitate back to Trump, stay home, or vote for Biden? (RELATED: Michelle Obama’s Office Addresses Presidential Rumors)
Trump has been up in nearly every poll since the beginning of 2024. The RealClear polling average currently has him leading Biden by 2.1 points, 47.5% to 45.4%. If within the margin of error from the first three primary polls on Trump, he would still walk away with the win. Without Haley and her last-minute momentum skewing the polls, things may settle back into equilibrium. As the “herd” continues to move toward Trump as an inevitability, it becomes increasingly safe to support him. This makes people both more likely to support him, as well as more likely to admit it to pollsters. As a result, Trump’s lead should widen further and the polls should reflect it even more accurately.
This dynamic works in favor of Haley voters coming back to Trump. They are looking for the perception of moderation, stability and normalcy — and Haley herself will play a large part in convincing her voters whether Trump is the right candidate for the job.